Truce and fire: The ghost of Versailles haunts Trump. But is Iran overplaying its hand?

President Trump declared the June 17 ceasefire with Iran over, ordering fresh US strikes. Iran responded by targeting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions. The conflict’s tempo is now largely controlled by Iran’s ability to disrupt oil shipments. Both sides face pressures, with neither in a decisive position to end the war. Managed instability with periodic attacks and negotiations is the likely immediate outcome.